CLIMATE CHANGE & RISING CRISIS IN PAKISTAN

 Pakistan is an autonomous country that occupies a strategic location in South Asia, with a wide variety of landscapes. The major portion of the Pakistani land is dry and barren, mainly because of the great variability in the climatic parameters. Most Parts of Pakistan are Arid to Semi Arid with significant spatial and temporal variability in climate.

Climate change is ranked 1^st among the top 27 most acute problems of this planet. According to IPCC (Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change), the developing and the least developed countries are expected to suffer more due to climate change as compared to the developed countries. Pakistan lies in a geographical region where the temperature increases are expected to be higher than the global average; its land area is mostly arid and semi-arid, its rivers are predominantly fed by the Hindu Kush-Karakoram & Himalayan glaciers which are reported to be melting rapidly due to global warming; its predominantly an agricultural country and hence highly climate sensitive; thus, the country faces increasingly large risks of variability in monsoon rains, hence large floods and extended droughts. Under the influence of all these factors the Water Security, the Flood Security and the Energy Security of the country are under serious threat. The Indus Delta is already located in the intense heat zone and any rise in temperature would impact human health. Pakistan is no stranger to climate change - it is among the most vulnerable, ill-equipped and ill-prepared countries to deal with climate change.

The most important driver of changing climate is rise in temperature. The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the global average surface temperature on Earth will increase by 1 to 3.5°C (about 2 to 6°F) by the year 2100, with an associated rise in sea level of 15 to 95 cm (about 6 to 37 inches).Pakistan in general and Indus Delta in particular would experience a 4 to 6 °C rise in temperature by that time on an average 0.5 °C rise per decade.

 Climate Scientists recommend the world to take serious actions to limit emission of greenhouse gases and keep the average global temperature below 1.5°C. This is vital to prevent humanity from climate crisis. In case of Pakistan, even before reaching this threshold, climate crisis in the region is already at alarming level. Pakistan by no means can afford the world cross the safe limit of 1.5°C and increase its vulnerabilities many times. 

According to World Bank data on CO₂ emissions, from 2011-15 Pakistan has produced 0.2 million metric tons. Although Pakistan has been a low producer of greenhouse gases, yet it has been one of the worst affected countries due to global warming.

The direct or indirect consequences of increase in temperature in Pakistan are heat waves, glaciers melting, floods, droughts, sea level rise, food insecurity, reduced agricultural productivity, reduced environmental quality, depletion of water resources and impacts on human health. All of these consequences are ultimately leads to economic loss. These Climate changes are costing the Pakistan’s economy $14 billion a year, which is almost 5% of the GDP.

Pakistan’s economy has been crippled heavily by devastating and repetitive floods during the last decade. In the past 10 years, Pakistan has been hit by floods almost every year. However, the floods of 2010 and 2011 have emerged as the biggest catastrophes in the country’s history.  The flood of 2010 remained as one of the biggest tragedy in the Pakistan’s history, with 20 million people affected by it. The floods resulted in approximately 1,781 deaths, injured 2,966 people and destroyed more than 1.89 million homes. 10,000 schools were damaged that correspondence to 1.5 to 2.5 million students affected. Estimated damage of Punjab was 67 billion rupees and of Sindh was 446 billion rupees. Overall estimated losses were 43 billion dollars, nearly 25 % of the nominal GDP of Pakistan.

Pakistan’s economy has also been punched heavily by the continuous spell of droughts for the last many years, particularly in the provinces of Baluchistan and Sindh. The drought in these areas has reduced the river flows, resulting in drying up of the irrigation canals, leading to a severe agricultural deprivation. It has also been responsible for causing immense losses to poultry and other animals, causing a general deficiency of food and water for people. The increased temperatures because of the increased GHGs as well as a mismanagement of the water reservoirs need to be blamed for the condition.

As an ill effect of global warming, the annual mean surface temperatures in Pakistan have been steadily increasing during the past century. A rise in mean temperature of 0.6-1°C in the coastal areas along with a 0.5 to 0.7% increase in solar radiation over southern half of country has been observed. In central Pakistan, 3-5% decreases in cloud cover with increasing hours of sunshine have also been responsible for increasing the temperatures.

Heat wave of 2010, broke all records as Mohenjo-Daro, a city in Sindh faced the temperature of 53.5 °C, the hottest temperature ever recorded in Asia and the fourth highest temperature ever recorded in the world. The summer of 2010 caused a temperature of above 50 °C in twelve cities of Pakistan. The heat wave of July, 2015 in Karachi was also very terrible. The scorching heat resulted in several deaths.

Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions due to reduced rainfall, and increased temperature leads to expansion of deserts

The increasing temperatures due to global warming have resulted in a progressive melting of glaciers, which has resulted in a gradual increase in the sea levels. Pakistan has more glaciers than any other land outside the North and South Poles with sizable ones in the Karakoram ranges. Glacier melt, in the wake of climate change, is a big threat to the country’s water resources. According to the Karachi Tidal Station, an increase in the mean sea level at a rate of 1.1 mm/yr has been recorded during the past 100 years. Six subdivisions of Thatta, which were previously considered extremely prosperous due to extensive agriculture, are now among the poorest parts of the country due to the engulfment by the sea.

Pakistan, which is an already resource stressed country, has been crippled by the process of global warming, as the blatant floods and droughts continue to wreck the country’s economy. These climatic catastrophes will not die down. Research studies have concluded that changing weather patterns will be the foundation for more intense and prolonged droughts and heat waves. Temperature increases both past and projected are higher over Pakistan compared to the global changes and as such the country is more vulnerable to climate change. Keeping in view the adverse effects of rising temperature, it is very important for our country to stay below 1.5°C. Efficient mitigation and adaptation strategies with policy interventions are needed to cope with rising temperature.

The main challenge for Pakistan is to identify and calculate greenhouse gas emissions, peak emissions levels and future projections. This is the first step that must be taken before a clear path can be set for implementation. Pakistan needs international assistance and cooperation if it wants to mitigate and adapt from the effects of climate change. 

Pakistan, which happens to not only be a victim of widespread terrorism and political instability but equally suffers from the effects of impending climate crisis, must see climate change as a security threat that effects not only the stability and prosperity of the country but also threatens the most vulnerable and poorest in the country. 

Thus, ratifying the Paris Agreement isn’t where the work ends, implementing it matters the most because climate change is a threat that must not be ignored at any cost. The Paris agreement will come into effect in 2020, empowering all countries to act to prevent average global temperatures rising above 2 °C and to reap the many opportunities that arise from a necessary global transformation to clean and sustainable development.

Capacity Building in the use development and modification of mathematical models for use in climate change related studies, needs to be enhanced. This new field of climate change, being an emerging component of natural sciences, needs to be taken up as part of the curricula of studies at the college and university level.